What the future holds ... Reloaded

In an earlier post I wrote about Erica Driver’s concise overview of the future of Web 2.0/3D calling it a blueprint of what’s coming next. This statement still holds true although there are more reports to come qualifying for that category. A recent one is the Metaverse Roadmap published by the Acceleration Studies Foundation (associated with Stanford University). Whilst Driver’s account focuses on near-term developments and provides a comprehensive overview of technologies that are already out there the Metaverse Roadmap speculates about the long(er)-term trends (next 10 and next 20 years).

Metaverse takes it as a given that eventually all Web 1.0, Web 2.0/3D technologies will be integrated (or meshed, to use tech talk). Based on this basic assumption it outlines four separate scenarios: Virtual Worlds, Mirror Worlds, Augmented Reality, Lifelogging. The future will most likely combine elements of each of these scenarios. For the purpose of our ongoing discussion, however, the Virtual World scenario is the most interesting one.

The Roadmap foresees that Virtual Worlds may “become primary tools (with videos and text secondary) for … acquiring new skills, for job assessment, and for many of our most cost-effective and productive forms of collaboration”. I have discussed previously examples of Unilever, BP and others who have made already big steps in this direction. Yet, Virtual Worlds will not only become the standard application for technical learning but also increasingly for soft skill training. Skills and capabilities learned in massively multi-user virtual worlds (mainly in games but also in social environments like Second Life) will be decisive for tomorrow’s managers and leaders: “[T]he leadership and collaboration skills required in virtual environments are increasingly well-suited to excelling in the business world. In coming years, quest management in virtual worlds, or winning entrepreneurial serious games may be as valid as sports team leadership or other traditional experience for executive training.” So we’re back to my bet that in the future job interviewers will be more interested in a candidate’s World of Warcraft’s raids, quests or Kalimdor and Azeroth’s explorations than his foreign language skills.

Together with Groundswell (to be discussed in a future post) and Driver’s report the Metaverse Roadmap should be required reading for any executive who is serious about utilizing technologies to better engage with his/her constituencies – mainly customers and employees.

Bye for now!
Charles

About Astronauts and Urban Normads

I did some long overdue backlog reading this weekend and came across the Economist's special report on Mobility. It is excellent reading - some of it beyond the scope of this blog but others spot on.

I argue in this blog that we are in the midst of a technological transformation that will force companies to change their culture and way they work dramatically. Whoever wants to remain unconvinced of that is not advised to read that special report.

The wireless world will soon be upon us. We can take that as a given. Today, already more than half of the world's population subscribe to a mobile-phone service. Given that Wi-Fi hotspots are popping up everywhere and processing power is ever increasing it is no surprise that Google has received 50 times more web-search requests from iPhones this year than from any other mobile handset. Not surprisingly, Arun Sarin, Vodafone's outgoing CEO, says in a recent FT special report: "The mobile internet is the new, new thin in the industry. And it is here for real and happening now".

The most interesting parts of the reports, however, are the sociological, urban and other ramifications of the wireless revolution. The office as we know it today will soon (or is it already?) be history. The workplace is not defined anymore by a single physical place but as the actual location where you happen do something for which you get paid for. That can be at the airport, Starbucks, a nearby library and other so called Third Places.

People argued that working in virtual teams is becoming more prevalent in a globalized world. However, even in places where employees live geographically close enough together to regularly meet in an office, "3rd-Place-ing" becomes common practice. Manuel Castells (sociologist at USC) summarizes it well: "Permanent connectivity, not motion, is the critical thing".

Another interesting contribution of the Report is on language. For the Gen Y, grammar, syntax and spelling provide general guidelines - at best - for written communication. Text and IM messages, blogs (not this ones) and other communication vehicles become loaded with abbreviations, emoticons and self-invented expressions which only insiders are able to decipher.

What does that all mean for employers? A lot! They need to rethink how their office space look like or indeed, if they still need one. Perhaps they (and their employees) are better off if they gave their employees financial allowances to work from Third Places. Second, team leaders need to be much better trained in how to manage vitual teams. How to set goals and monitor progress, how to use new technology to communicate with dispersed team members, how to engage them remotely so that they can be retained and how to create a team or company culture with employees who never see each other. Virtual Worlds will provide useful conduits for that (for more on that see also Erica Driver's Forrester report on working in the virtual world) . But individual behaviour of both leaders and team members need to be adressed as well. Finally, companies need to get to grips with the fact that their employees use new/other technologies and use traditional technologies differently. A recent Pew Research report shows that for instance 31% of 18-29 year olds use their mobile phones to access the Internet as oppose to merely 10% of 50-64 year olds who do the same.

Are companies ready for that change? My take is: No - by a fair margin. Are they realizing that these changes are coming? Well, some are but most still think they can sit it out. With this attitude many companies forego not only a chance to attract and retain the young talents they are desperately seeking but also underutilize the potential for bottom-up innovation (for more on that see my last post).

Bye for now!
Charles

What the future holds ... perhaps

I recently came across Erica Driver's (Forrester Research) paper Web3D: The Next Major Internet Wave. I shouldn't really call it a blueprint - as we don't know what else is coming up soon - but it gets pretty close to it. For her, Web3D is "a system of linked interactive 3-D and 2-D environments that will include everything from user-specific, private applications ... to virtual worlds ... and people will move among these in a seamless, natural way". As Forrester charges for this study I shouldn't summarize the report here but it is loaded with interesting hypotheses, facts & figures and useful overviews of providers (hard-/software) that might become dominant players in the nascent Virtual World industry.

It's good to be upbeat about the future of WEb3D but Driver is in upbeat overdrive. There is no single sentence showing some scepticism about how things develop. I agree, comparison with the web in the 1990s is striking but she basically assumes that once the technology is there people will full-heartedly embrace it. I agree, take-up will accelerate in the future. But one might also argue that there will be a backlash as people refuse to go fully virtual. For a more sober view on that look at Richard Sennett's writings (The Culture of Capitalism and others). Also, security aspects are not really addressed.

Despite all this, it is definitively worthwhile reading the report. Even if not everything materializes (by the time Driver predicts) it surely gives us an interesting glimps into the future.

Bye for now!
Charles

Life Extension for Second Life

I recently came across a couple of interesting articles in the German daily "Handelsblatt" on Second Life (SL). Whilst the first (dating back to February 2008) joined the doomsayers providing examples of how quickly companies want to exit SL, the more recent one (June 2008) shed some light on new developments in SL (and its offsprings) that point to another direction.

Increasingly companies discover the use of virtual worlds for - guess what - employee attraction, retention and development. Examples like Unilever, IBM, BT are provided that show how virtual worlds can help for example increasing interaction amongst employees, getting exposure to senior management and supporting the onboarding process of new joiners globally.

Interestingly, companies rely more and more on closed SL look-alikes. This is mainly driven by security concerns about open platforms but also by stability issues. I'm convinced that we will see more of that in the future. Companies will move away from open platforms, develop their own closed ones and then starting to open them up again for specific clients, partners, suppliers etc. Gartner's Steve Prentice predicts for example that by 2012, 70 per cent of organisations will have established their own private virtual worlds. Costs of creating such private corporate virtual worlds are reasonable, ranging from USD 5k-50k. Steve also gives some interesting reasons why 90% corporate virtual world projects failed in the past.

Given the increasing prevalence of private virtual worlds it's important that vendors of virtual world software ensure interoperability and open standards. For a comprehensive discussion of that topic see Juha Hullko's interview on open virtual worlds. Linden Lab (the creator of SL) and IBM have announced in April this year a joint effort to exactly do that - seamlessly linking SL with IBM's own custom-built world behind the firewall without the need to log on and off. Quoting from the respective press release: "...deployment of the Second Life Grid behind IBM’s firewall is intended to allow for an environment of security-rich content creation, data assets and internal communications such as chat, IM and voice, while also enabling connection to the wealth of user-generated content on the Second Life mainland."

Despite this exciting news, we should hold our breath. Public social networks, virtual world platforms etc. (eventually) need to make money. There revenue model (and so their implicit valuations) is mainly driven by advertising money and this in turn is directly correlated to the number of page views. So - as a recent Economist report says - networks want to "maintain a tight gripon their users' information, to ensure that they keep coming back". So it might still take some time until social networks and other Web 2.0 platforms become "like air"!

A question for you: do you see similar developments in your own company? What is the perception of your company using virtual worlds for internal use? Let's discuss.

Bye for now!
Charles

ArcelorMittal Setting the Pace

On 17 June 2008, ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker by volume, was the first listed company that held its annual shareholder meeting in Second Life (SL). This is groundbreaking and certainly a big boost for the commercial viability of SL. Despite all the doomsayers who want to convince the world that SL is only a virtual toy for almost-grown ups, ArcelorMittal's move showed that this is in fact the standard platform to interact with the Generation Y (20-27 years olds). Will it pay out? What is the ROI? I am sure, ArcelorMittal couldn't care less about such questions. This is all about getting engaged with an important, increasingly vocal constituency that you cannot reach better than with Web 2.0 technologies. The earlier companies embrace that and act upon it the higher is their chance to attract the Gen Y - as customers, shareholders or employees.

I can't predict that we still have THE Second Life five years from now. Unfortunately, it is the tragedy of many first-movers that they are often also the first-loosers. But there will be more and more offsprings of such virtual worlds - for different regions, countries, industries, interest groups etc. - and they will blend into our real life faster than we think. Why? What about that: "Part of what makes the virtual world so compelling is that it is so lifelike ... fewer things are different there than I would have thought: many of the same values apply" (Philip Rosedale, SL Founder).

First post

Today, 1 July 2008, is the official start of this blog. I am very excited to start this exchange of views, opinions and thoughts with you. The changes happening in today’s workforce and the accelerated development of new technologies will have a tremendous impact on the future workplace. Consequences will be felt by all of us.

I decided to launch this blog after writing an article in the HR Today Magazine on "Give HR a Second Life" which is also published today. Therein I discuss that Second Life (SL) is not only the virtual platform on which individuals interact via their avatars. SL stands as a synonym for a technological and sociological transformation of our business world. With the Generation Y (todays 20-27 years olds) entering the worklife, companies need to rapidly change their culture to comply with the new demands coming from these hires. I also elaborate on the use of virtual games as a good training ground for future leaders. With these online games - or Massively-Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games (MMORPGs), as they are called correctly - people can learn how to effectively collaborate and lead in a increasingly virtual world.

This article - which I recommend everyone to read, of course ;-) - sets the agenda for this blog. I will regularly post my thougths here and hope you will actively join in to the discussion. I don't care if you agree or disagree as long as you will make your voice heard here. Let's have fun!

Bye for now!
Charles